Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? Odds jumped to 95% on Jul 9, 2026

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? On Jul 9, 2026, 00:47 UTC, the market’s odds jumped from 76.5¢ to 95.4¢ (+18.9 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from AP Reporter. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 9, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

• Jul 9, 2026, 15:39 UTC36.1¢ → 19.3¢-16.8 ptsafter a signal from Saudi State-Run Al Ekhbariya TV
• Jul 9, 2026, 15:47 UTC31.2¢ → 20.8¢-10.4 ptsafter a signal from Asharq
• Jul 9, 2026, 15:50 UTC34.5¢ → 22.1¢-12.3 ptsafter a signal from Sky News Arabia
• Jul 9, 2026, 19:56 UTC18.1¢ → 7.7¢-10.3 ptsafter a signal from Asharq

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen Jul 9, 2026, 00:49 UTC. The triggering signal is listed first.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of Aug 30, 2026, 19:22 UTC.

Vol$968K

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Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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