Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? Odds fell to 24% on Jul 9, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? On , the market’s odds fell from 32.5¢ to 23.5¢ (-9 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Al Hadath. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match32.5¢
+5m32.5¢
+30m23.5¢
+1h23.5¢
1h move-9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesAl Hadath99%match
The Gulf Cooperation Council statement: We hold Iran fully responsible for the attacks and their repercussions.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$154K

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Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iran military action against a gulf state on...? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.