Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? Odds fell to 51% on Aug 4, 2026
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Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? On , the market’s odds fell from 67.5¢ to 50.5¢ (-17 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Al-Monitor Reporter.
How did the odds move?
67.5¢
53¢
57.5¢
50.5¢
45.5¢
-17 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
YesAl-Monitor Reporter95%match
UPDATE: Hormuz Deal Seen Close • • Iran controlsentry, Oman exit: RTRS • • Iran has ability to intervene in waterway • • Potential service fee, revenue split: NYT • • Bessent: Could be reached any day
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 38% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES38¢
NO63¢
$178K
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Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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