Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Odds fell to 25% on Aug 30, 2026

OpenMove

Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? On , the market’s odds fell from 46¢ to 24.5¢ (-21.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from iranintlbrk.

How did the odds move?

At match46¢
+5m43¢
+30m41.5¢
+1h24.5¢
1h move-21.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 30, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 43¢ → 22.5¢-20.5 ptsafter a signal from Venezuela State-Backed TV
  • 43¢ → 22.5¢-20.5 ptsafter a signal from Venezuela State-Backed TV
  • 27.5¢ → 4¢-23.5 ptsafter a signal from sankei.com
  • 39¢ → 1.8¢-37.2 ptsafter a signal from welt.de
  • 12¢ → 1.7¢-10.3 ptsafter a signal from money.udn.com

What moved the odds?

Yesiranintlbrk94%match
Reuters: Preliminary results from Iceland's referendum on resuming EU accession talks show a narrow "yes" vote.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$207K

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Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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