Grok 4.4 released by July 8? Odds jumped to 100% on Jul 8, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Grok 4.4 released by July 8? On , the market’s odds jumped from 89¢ to 99.9¢ (+10.9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from elonmusk. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match89¢
+5m98.5¢
+30m100¢
+1h99.9¢
1h move+10.9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Yeselonmusk99%match
Our internal assessment is that Grok 4.5 is roughly comparable to Opus 4.7, but much faster. The combination of capability, faster speed and lower cost is what makes it competitive. • • We are closing the loop on real-world usefulness, not benchmarks. Hardcore engineers at Tesla & SpaceX find Grok 4.5 genuinely useful, which is what actually matters.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$106K

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Grok 4.4 released by July 8? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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