Navy vs. Air Force — odds fell to 9% on Oct 3, 2026

OpenMove

Navy vs. Air Force — on , the market’s odds fell from 19.5¢ to 8.5¢ (-11 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Department of War/Pentagon.

How did the odds move?

At match19.5¢
+5m21.5¢
+30m11¢
+1h8.5¢
1h move-11 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Oct 3, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 19.5¢ → 9¢-10.5 ptsafter a signal from Department of War/Pentagon
  • 20.5¢ → 0.1¢-20.4 ptsafter a signal from White House Rapid Response

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NeutralDepartment of War/Pentagon94%match
.@SECWAR took the field for the coin toss at the AIR FORCE VS. NAVY game. • • “MEN—WARRIORS. GET AFTER IT.”
NeutralDepartment of War/Pentagon94%match
.@SECWAR took the field for the coin toss at the AIR FORCE VS. NAVY game. • • “MEN—WARRIORS. GET AFTER IT.”

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves Navy, as of .

Navy5¢
Air Force96¢

Vol$253K

Follow this market

Navy vs. Air Force — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.